Spoiler Alert – Coinbase Q1 2024 Revenue Estimates

We estimate Coinbase net revenue for Q1 2024 to be $1.5 billion, growing by 65% for the quarter. Our estimate is much higher than the consensus gross revenue estimate of $1.2 billion. Bitcoin spot ETF approval and fresh all-time-highs meant trading volume doubled in Q1 2024. As volume surged, we expect transaction revenue to follow a similar trajectory and grow by 89% for the quarter to ~$1 billion. Investments in non-trading revenue lines continue to pay off for Coinbase and may contribute to 34% of revenue. The largest component, stablecoin revenue, may grow by 12% for the quarter, in line with the growth in USDC supply. We expect blockchain rewards from Coinbase’s staking service to grow by 45% with higher average prices across all supported Proof-of-Stake assets. Coinbase’s revenue is future-proof, with custody income and Base sequencer revenue likely to play a more significant role going forward.