Returns of the top 100 assets by GitHub commits

To assess a correlation between developer activity and price returns, we looked at the top 100 cryptoassets ranked by the number of GitHub commits over the last year. Segregating those 100 assets into quartiles based on total commits we found the top 25 outperformed the rest.

The bottom quartile appears to have outperformed the prior two, however with a mean return of -46%, it was not statistically significant. In other words, based on the high degree of variability in cryptoasset returns, the anomaly can be explained by randomness whereas the -27% return of the first quartile cannot based off of the t-test for statistical significance.

It should be noted GitHub commits are an imperfect measure of developer activity since the metric can be gamed. For example, a project looking to boost their commits can write sloppy code, committing each line separately rather than writing meaningful chunks of code.

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