Messari Daily Newsletter: Of Boys and Wolves

As I’ve gotten older and more skeptical, I’ve come to realize how unbelievably bad some of the advice was that many of us absorbed as kids.

Today's epiphany comes from Aesop’s fable, “the boy who cried wolf.”

What if, rather than tricking the adults in the village to come rescue him from a phantom wolf, the little boy shepherd really did see a wolf (that then scurried away when he heard angry villagers approaching), or he even thought he actually did see a wolf the first couple of times it emerged from the shadows? It doesn't take much of a stretch to imagine the adults who ignored the third warning were the ones who actually wrote the fable: downplay their failure to respond and max out scapegoating on the kid because they refused to think in probability terms.

The poor little bastard may have gotten an unfair rap. Yes, he was wrong twice, but he was telling the truth once, and the damage was catastrophic.

When it comes to “fat tail" events like that, it’s better to have false positives (the nuisance of running to the hill a couple of times), then false negatives (ignoring the actual wolf and losing the flock). The same is generally true for all sorts of high stakes events. That’s why we buy insurance, read warning labels, and pay attention when a smoke alarm goes off. It's why everyone in crypto has probably read Taleb, and I'm preaching to the choir right now.

Well, we should also be paying close attention to viruses that have charts which look like this:

Source: https://www.2019ncov.report/

The past week is unique for two reasons.

1. It’s the first time I actually seriously prepared a “what if” disaster plan - with respect to supplies, travel protocol, hedging my investments, and even policy changes at Messari (we’re testing our remote work systems this week).
2. It’s the most intensely focused trip I’ve had down a rabbit hole since I went full Charlie Day on bitcoin over a long Halloween weekend in 2013. Back then, bitcoin traded at $200, and I’m glad I took the "fat tail” opportunity seriously.

Which is to say, "I think that might be a f*cking wolf over there." It's probably not. But I think it might be.

I've been frustrated with the quality and consistency of information so far, which is why I'll be providing live updates in this shared document for the next week+ until things seem to subside.

I've broken down the document between high level education resources, breaking news, the macro political and economic consequences, crypto consequences, etc. I've also created a twitter list you can follow here (first time I've ever actually done that) if you want a customized newsfeed.

There will, of course, be elements that are specifically relevant to crypto. More generally, though, this is the sort of tail event that will tell us quite a bit about how bitcoin and crypto ecosystems respond to disruptive macro events at this type of scale.

Some might mock this slight diversion away from 100% crypto above-the-fold, but I'm ok with that. I think the crypto/early concern audience overlaps significantly in the west, and I'm fine with being labeled the boy who cried wolf by those who can't be bothered to do basic math and run through the scenarios.

Prepare, don't panic. Hopefully, I'll be back to my more typical snarky bullshit missives soon.

-TBI

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